JP Morgan predicts that the average price per barrel of Brent crude oil will be around $83 next year. The bank emphasized that this forecast is based on analysts’ expectations that there will be resilient demand for oil in the United States, strong demand growth in developing markets, and stability expectations in European markets.
JP Morgan analysts also expressed their expectation that the average Brent crude oil price per barrel will be $75 for the year 2025.
Like many other forecasts, this prediction relies on significant energy efficiency gains and the expected growth in sales of electric vehicles at the expense of internal combustion engine vehicles, leading to a decline in fuel demand.
The bank also anticipates a weakening in jet fuel demand after the recent increase.
From the perspective of total demand, JP Morgan analysts expect a growth of 1.9 million barrels for this year, while projecting a decrease to 1.6 million barrels in 2024.
The analysts stated, “Despite ongoing economic challenges, we see demand supported by the strength of developing markets, resilient U.S., and weak but stable Europe. The composition of demand is likely to change. Two-thirds of the demand increase will come from overall economic expansion, while the normalization of jet fuel will contribute to the rest.”
On the supply side, JP Morgan expects an increase in non-OPEC production that could undermine OPEC+’s efforts to keep prices above a certain level. If the increase in non-OPEC supply is strong enough, it could push Brent below $70 per barrel.
In this context, JP Morgan analysts also expressed their expectation that OPEC+ will continue to cut production to support prices.
Goldman Sachs, in a statement on Monday, said it is reasonable to expect OPEC+ to make deeper cuts at the cartel’s next meeting on November 26.
