Disney is wishing on a shooting star this week, hoping that its celebratory 100th anniversary film “Wish” will mark a turning point for its beleaguered animation division and jumpstart the Thanksgiving box office.
The House of Mouse posted its biggest year ever theatrically in 2019 — with a whopping seven films surpassing $1 billion in global ticket sales — but has yet to recapture that magic even after relaxed Covid restrictions brought moviegoers back to cinemas. Its Marvel Cinematic Universe films have been hit-or-miss with audiences, with “The Marvels” most recently opening to an all-time franchise low. But Disney’s animation arm, which has ruled the box office for decades, has had more rotten eggs than golden ones in the last three years.
Much of Disney’s troubles have stemmed from executive decisions to pad its fledgling streaming service Disney+ with content, stretching its creative teams thin, and sending theatrical movies during the pandemic straight to digital. This has been particularly apparent with Disney’s animated features, both from its Walt Disney Animation studio and from Pixar. Parents, confused about when and where animated films from the studio were being released, didn’t show up to theaters.
And the films that were released weren’t all well-received by critics or audiences. This has had a direct impact on the key Thanksgiving holiday, which Disney has long dominated at the box office. Disney declined to comment for this story.
Feast or Famine
The Thanksgiving week traditionally witnesses a flourishing box office, serving as a beloved tradition for families gathering during extended breaks from school and work.
Over the past decade, excluding 2020, 2021, and 2022, the five-day Thanksgiving period—from the Wednesday before Thanksgiving through Sunday—consistently yielded over $250 million in annual ticket sales.
Historically, the success of Disney’s animated films and Lionsgate’s Hunger Games series has contributed significantly to these lucrative weekends.
However, in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, the box office has encountered challenges in reclaiming its prominence during the Thanksgiving holiday.
Thanksgiving Five-Day Box Office
“Thanksgiving, as a holiday moviegoing corridor, has diminished in its revenue-generating horsepower in the post-pandemic era, and this means that at least for now, the odds are against any film becoming a massive breakout hit over the five-day frame,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “Thanksgiving films in this movie marketplace must rely more heavily on December moviegoing to determine their ultimate box office fate.”
Box office analysts often disregard 2020’s $21.4 million Thanksgiving haul, as few theaters were open and there were few films to watch. However, in both 2021 and 2022, despite more titles being available, neither year reached $150 million in domestic ticket sales for the five-day period.
Early ticket sales suggest that “Wish” could secure up to $55 million for the Wednesday-to-Sunday period, including Thanksgiving. This figure trails previous Thanksgiving openers from Disney, such as “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Coco,” “The Good Dinosaur,” and “Tangled,” but surpasses the $18.9 million brought in by “Strange World” last year and the $40.6 million from “Encanto” in 2021, according to data from Comscore.
Top Thanksgiving Openers
If “Wish” reaches the $55 million mark, it would become the seventh-biggest Thanksgiving opening of all time. When factoring in second-week sales from Universal’s “Trolls Band Together,” Lionsgate’s “Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes,” TriStar’s Eli Roth slasher flick “Thanksgiving,” as well as new entrants like Apple’s “Napoleon,” box office analysts anticipate a haul between $150 million and $160 million for the five-day spread.
“This is shaping up to be a very crowded Thanksgiving at the multiplex,” said Dergarabedian. “And ‘Wish’ will have to hope that the other new PG-rated animated family films on screens, like ‘Trolls Band Together,’ will not siphon off a larger-than-expected share of the target audience.”
However, box office expectations have not been particularly accurate this year. Films such as Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour concert film, Disney’s “The Marvels,” and “Ballad” all delivered opening weekends that fell short of expectations.
“Wish” carries significant weight o
Trouble in the Magic Kingdom
n its opening weekend as Disney seeks to recover from a series of box office disappointments. After the misfire of “Strange World” last year and the lingering impact of short-lived streaming strategies, it’s crucial for “Wish” to bring back a larger portion of its core audience, especially considering the success of other studios and animated franchises over the last 18 months, said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com.
In contrast, Universal’s animated films, such as “Minions: The Rise of Gru” and “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” have excelled in 2022. Similarly, Sony achieved great success with “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.” Meanwhile, Disney has yet to secure more than $500 million worldwide from an animated feature since 2019.
“Elemental,” released over the summer, managed to collect $479.8 million. The last time a Pixar film grossed less than $500 million was 2017′s “Cars 3,” which drew $383.5 million in ticket sales. On the Walt Disney Animation side, the last film to fall short of the $500 million mark before 2020 was 2014′s “Planes: Fire and Rescue,” which racked up $151.4 million globally.
Whether “Wish” wins over audiences is up in the air. It hasn’t inspired critics. The day before its opening, the film was hovering under 60% on Rotten Tomatoes, which translates to a “rotten” rating. Still, other Disney films such as “Pocahontas,” “Robin Hood,” “Oliver and Company,” “Atlantis: The Lost Empire” and “Brother Bear” all hold a rating under 60% on the review aggregator but are fan-favorite films for many.
So, even if “Wish” doesn’t have an immediately strong box office, it could find life on Disney+. After all, that’s what happened for Disney’s “Encanto.”
Released in 2021 for the Thanksgiving holiday, “Encanto” generated $40.6 million from the five-day Thanksgiving weekend domestically and went on to tally $257.5 million globally during its run. In the home market, the film continued to capture the attention of kids and adults alike with catchy tunes such as “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” and “Surface Pressure.”
“‘Wish’ comes at an opportune time because the market has been starved for family content since summer ended,” said Robbins.
